Thom Hogan’s predictions for 2011


Every year Thom Hogan make predictions for camera and lens innovation from camera manufacturers. Some of his predictions for year 2010 are correct ( link ). Yes ,some were wrong but Thom’s prediction has become some sort of a reliable reference of what camera or lens we will have in the future.

Ok, here’s some summary of Thom’s 2011 predictions ( by manufacturer )


  • Nikon D800 will be announced by end of March 2011. Expected specifications are new FX Sony sensor, 24 MP, 5fps , HD video 1080p/30 and 720p/60 , 100% view coverage, and new batteries + grip.
  • Nikon D400 on August 2011 or later. It will be built based on Nikon D7000 sensor with faster fps, GPS built-in, new EN-EL15 battery, and more hardcore pro body.
  • Nikon D5100 on first quarter of 2011 using Nikon D3100 sensor and the megapixels will increase to 14Mp
  • Nikon D4 will be announced by August 2011 with new Nikon 18mp sensor, new AF system, D7000’s metering system, video 1080p/60 , GPS built-in and support for USB 3.0
  • Coolerpix / CP8000 , basically is a mirrorless camera with larger sensor. Should be ready on February or first quarter of the year
  • Nikkor lenses : A 80-400mm f/4-5.6 replacement, with AF-S and a new optical design , A 70-200mm f/4 addition ( i would love to have this ), 50mm f/1.2 G , a long fast micro-nikkor lens , 24-105mm f/2.8 VR


  • X100 , a large sensor compact camera with a 12Mp APS-C CMOS sensor, Fuji EXR processor and 23mm F2 Fujinon lens
  • X200 ?


  • A700 replacement with 24Mp APS sensor, pellicle mirror , built-in GPS
  • Two more NEX cameras with at least three new NEX lens


  • Canon 1Ds Mark IV with 32 Mp sensor
  • Canon 5D mark III by end of 2011
  • Canon T3i
  • Canon EVIL ?


  • Olympus EP-3 , different from EP-2 with more pro-body and controls
  • Olymput E-PL2 , E-PL1 successor for low-end consumer
  • a super telephoto zoom 70-300mm , a 50mm macro, an 8mm fisheye, and a 12mm wide angle lens in early 2011


  • GF2 ( already announced and will be available by early next year )
  • Panasonic GP-2
  • new lenses: 14-45mm f/2.8 and a 45-100mm f/2.8


  • at least two more S mount lenses, at least two more M mount lens revisions
  • X2 , Leica X1’s successor with a 35mm f/2 lens


  • NX200
  • NX20


  • 28mm wide angle lens
  • 24-70mm APS module


  • probably some mirrorless cameras

For more details , check Thom’s 2011 predictions here

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